Into the blue again,
after the money’s gone
Once in a lifetime,
water flowing underground
“Once in a Lifetime”
We have been told, with frequency, that the tax bill now pending in Congress is a “political necessity” for the incumbent Republican congressional majority.
Let’s take the shrink wrap off that one.
Any tax code has winners and losers. Any change in the tax code rearranges who wins and who loses.
There are indeed winners in the pending tax bill. It is “just, like, my opinion, man” but I contend that those who win under the tax bill will not vote for the party that wrote it. Winners credit themselves for their financial success.
The losers will vote against that party. Examine the chart above. Way back in the Year 2000, the nation was chill. Now, look at the right margin: the traditional Republican-leaning “age cohorts” are moving away. (Read more from Will Jordan, one smart Democrat, here.)
Millennials with skills, who control pass-through entities, who do not have school age children, are winners. Millennials tag the Republican Party as an alien culture. (They are starting to vote in higher percentages, partially because they are aging into it and partially as a protest against our current president.)
You can identify these winners at the coffee shop. They have better tattoos.
Culture leads; politics and law follow.
Meanwhile, the designated losers under the pending tax bill, are in line at the discount store during back-to-school double-coupon night.
These are the middle-middle class families living in suburban areas with two-paycheck parents paying too much to live in a house because the house gets their kids into a better public school. The Republican Party used to exist to serve the practical economic needs of these families.
If you live in a suburban area with good public schools, your property taxes are high. Your income taxes are high if your suburb is in a blue or purple state. While your income may exceed the national average per capita, you don’t live in a neighborhood with a national average cost of living.
The pending tax bill raises the effective rate on these losers.
A month ago, the suburban voters in Virginia rejected a suburban candidate for governor only because he was labeled Republican.
While it is easy to get distracted by the crapshoot (ahem) in the Alabama Senate race on December 12, Republican politicians ought to work on what they can control. Maybe stop chasing people away.
It’s not just, like, my opinion, man. According to the Wall Street Journal, Dollar General’s business is booming because America’s middle-middle class is not. Dollar General has 14,000 stores, more than twice the profit of Macy’s, a $22 billion market value, and a growth plan to move towards the cities.